Two Front War Risks
India’s defense planning assumes a possible simultaneous conflict with Pakistan (west) and China (north). With current squadron levels, this scenario is highly perilous:
Numerical disadvantage: Facing Pakistan and China together, the IAF would be split between western and northern fronts. Analysts warn that dividing 30 squadrons between two theaters means about 10–15 squadrons per front, against 20+ Pakistani squadrons on the western side and dozens of Chinese squadrons on the northern side. The result is quantitative and qualitative asymmetry in each theater. Even the defense secretary’s committee notes that dual front operations with only 30 squadrons are inadequate.
Strain on resources: A multi front war would exhaust IAF assets rapidly. High intensity operations (CAPs, strikes) consume missiles, fuel, and create maintenance backlogs. With an older fleet, attrition and accident rates are also concerns (the IAF lost 200 aircraft in accidents from 2001–2021). Even training cycles would suffer as jets are pushed to the front.
Adversary readiness: By 2030, the PLA Air Force may field 300–400 fifth-gen jets (J-20) and hundreds of J-10A/B/C, giving China a layered, modern threat. Pakistan could acquire J-35 stealth fighters or more J-10s as part of its China partnership. In such a scenario, India would rely on Rafale (36 jets), Su-30MKI, upgraded MiG-29/Mirage, and Tejas against numerically superior foes.
These factors culminate in a grim consensus: the IAF is currently ill prepared for a simultaneous two front conflict. Even as a “punitive force” (as in Balakot 2019), the IAF demonstrated capability to strike, but sustained full scale war requires mass. The service has publicly urged the government to bridge the gap (e.g. demanding 40 new jets annually). Without rapid force build-up, the two front scenario could severely compromise India’s air dominance and deterrent.
