Outlook to 2030: Trends and Projections
What will India’s fighter strength look like by 2030 if current trends persist?
One sobering projection (India Today Group) says that if no new orders beyond those already on contract are placed, the IAF’s squadron count could fall to just 25 by 2035. That scenario assumes retiring all 6 Jaguar, 3 MiG-29, and 3 Mirage squadrons over the next decade. However, that analysis also outlines mitigating factors:
Ordering the additional 97 Tejas Mk1As would add 5 squadrons, with deliveries into the early 2030s.
Early production of Tejas Mk2 (40–50 jets by 2035) could create 2–3 new squadrons.
Finalizing the MRFA 114-jet deal (European, American or Russian fighters) would inject 6 squadrons.
If these planned acquisitions materialize on time, the IAF could rebound to 30–35 squadrons by 2030. Indeed, a European defense journal projected 35–36 squadrons by the mid 2030s. Yet even this “best-case” leaves India short of the 42 mark.
By 2030, China is expected to be accelerating its fighter buildup (multiple J-20 squadrons, plus J-31 tests) and continuing export of J-10/JF-17 to allies. Pakistan may field its first J-35 jets and focus on net centric upgrades. Regional forces (Bangladesh, Myanmar) may see incremental new fighters but will remain smaller.
The strategic landscape implies that if India does not dramatically accelerate its fighter induction, the gap with adversaries will widen. A smaller fleet facing larger, more advanced enemies could embolden rivals and constrain India’s options in crises. Conversely, even a modest improvement in induction rates (through Tejas, MRFA, more Rafales/Su-30s) could stabilize squadron counts. Policymakers will weigh whether to continue delaying new planes and hope technological force multipliers suffice, or to spur a surge in purchases and production.
