In a startling revelation that challenges the public narrative of a strong Russia-China alliance, leaked internal documents from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) expose deep distrust and strategic fear of China within Moscow’s top security circles.
Despite President Vladimir Putin’s repeated declarations of a “no limits partnership” with China, these classified documents—verified by The New York Times—clearly identify China as a potential adversary. The contents paint a very different picture from the public diplomatic show of friendship.
The Leak and Its Significance
The leak originated from a Russian hacker group and includes documents from 2023 and early 2024. The FSB’s internal briefings directly refer to China as “the enemy”, suggesting serious concerns about Beijing’s intentions and activities. Notably, neither Russia nor China has denied the authenticity of the documents.
Among the most alarming revelations:
Russia has drawn up contingency plans to use tactical nuclear weapons against China in the event of an invasion, particularly into the Siberian region.
Military simulations from 2008 to 2014 prepared for a full-scale Chinese incursion into Russian territory, including scenarios involving sabotage, local unrest, and precision strikes.
Foreign Policy vs. Reality
Interestingly, Russia’s official 2023 foreign policy strategy names China and India as Russia’s key partners in Eurasia. However, the leak exposes contradictions in this stance.
With escalating tensions between India and China, the documents raise an uncomfortable question:
If India and China go to war, whom will Russia side with—its long-time defense partner India, or its economic ally China?
FSB’s Growing Concerns About China
The documents reveal that Russian intelligence is increasingly frustrated by China’s growing espionage efforts within Russia:
Chinese intelligence agencies have successfully compromised Russian officials, gathering sensitive information with alarming ease.
Manchuria and parts of Eastern Russia are referred to in some Chinese intellectual circles as “historically Chinese territories,” adding to Russia’s territorial paranoia.
The FSB is concerned that as China’s wealth and power rise, Russia may become the junior partner in the relationship, or worse, a territorial target.
China’s Unpredictable Behavior
FSB analysts also warn of China’s sudden policy shifts and opportunism. The documents suggest that China could abandon its partnerships—including with Russia—if better deals emerge, especially from the West.
This unpredictability, coupled with China’s aggressive foreign policy and historical revisionism, has made Moscow extremely cautious—despite its public praise for Xi Jinping.
Geopolitical Fallout
This leak shatters the carefully constructed image of an unbreakable Sino-Russian alliance and could alter how the world approaches East Asian geopolitics. It signals:
A fragile and transactional relationship between Moscow and Beijing.
Potential shifts in strategic alignments, particularly in Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
A wake-up call for nations like India that maintain separate relationships with both powers.
Final Thoughts
While the West has often viewed Russia and China as unified adversaries, these leaked documents expose a reality filled with suspicion, calculations, and nuclear contingency plans. As China rises and Russia faces economic and demographic decline, the power imbalance may only grow.
One thing is clear:
Behind the smiles, handshakes, and joint statements—there is fear.
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